Saturday, December 10, 2005
Going Postal
Dr. Joe's taking some heat... in the webinar I said that the postal increase is the least of our worries, and in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter all that much.
I've written about this in the webinar Q&A and the discussion will be continued in the Friday 12/16 WTT column (my last column of the year).
Basically it's this... sure, a postal rate increase may be the last thing that pushes someone off the edge... but we have to remember the loud, crazy mob that chased them to the precipice in the first place, not just the person who had the privilege of providing that last nudge.
Just like you find lost things in the last place you look, it's easy to give false attribution to the last thing someone saw. We all know that always acting on the last thing you hear is usually wrong, because it has no context, and may not come from a credible source.
Postal rates have been frozen for the last three years... from a value of money perspective, the uncharged inflation from that is actually a 10% discount. That's right, postage is effectively 10% less than it was when these rates were put into effect. If a 10% discount hasn't stimulated demand, why is it that we should think that a 5-8% increase will hurt demand except for various deadline effects of people rushing to beat the date that the new rates go into force?
New media have no postage costs and no paper costs. That's the problem. If postage was $0, the cost of the printed mailing would still have trouble competing in this new communications marketplace. Magazines are a good example... if page counts were up, would the industry be in such trauma? Page counts are already down, and they've been down for five years.
Is there still hope? Of course... but only if we fight the right battles.
I've written about this in the webinar Q&A and the discussion will be continued in the Friday 12/16 WTT column (my last column of the year).
Basically it's this... sure, a postal rate increase may be the last thing that pushes someone off the edge... but we have to remember the loud, crazy mob that chased them to the precipice in the first place, not just the person who had the privilege of providing that last nudge.
Just like you find lost things in the last place you look, it's easy to give false attribution to the last thing someone saw. We all know that always acting on the last thing you hear is usually wrong, because it has no context, and may not come from a credible source.
Postal rates have been frozen for the last three years... from a value of money perspective, the uncharged inflation from that is actually a 10% discount. That's right, postage is effectively 10% less than it was when these rates were put into effect. If a 10% discount hasn't stimulated demand, why is it that we should think that a 5-8% increase will hurt demand except for various deadline effects of people rushing to beat the date that the new rates go into force?
New media have no postage costs and no paper costs. That's the problem. If postage was $0, the cost of the printed mailing would still have trouble competing in this new communications marketplace. Magazines are a good example... if page counts were up, would the industry be in such trauma? Page counts are already down, and they've been down for five years.
Is there still hope? Of course... but only if we fight the right battles.
