Wednesday, June 01, 2005


Today's ISM Report Implies Fed is Done

The ISM report on manufacturing dropped to 51.4, which still shows growth, but it is clearly slowing. The employment part of the index shows manufacturing employment contracting. The number was affected by some negative reports from autos. Inflation as measured by the ISM looked like it was finally cooling.

The fact that the 10-year bond dropped below 4% is another sign that inflation concerns are waning. I hope it's one more time in June for the Fed and that's it. If it's not, it's a replay of 2001's overtightening all over again.

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