Sunday, April 10, 2005


China: Closer to Being the World's Largest Economy than Most People Realize

Inc. magazine has a superb article about China in its March 2005 issue. It cuts through a lot of the myth and adds some excellent insights. It even estimates how much of the China economy might not be counted in the "official" figures.

By my calculations, it will not take long for China to become the largest economy. Using the official figures, and assuming that U.S. annual economic growth is 3%, China would have to grow at about 6.3% per year for its population to achieve one-quarter of the U.S. per capita GDP. At that level, since the Chinese population is 4x that of the U.S., it would exceed the total size of the U.S. GDP in twenty years. China's most recent growth rates are between 8% and 10%; it may happen sooner.

Today, China called for collaboration with India in information technology. (WSJ; subscription required),,SB111314988859802835,00.html?mod=home_whats_news_us

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